It’s now or never for Europe.
We are at a point where Europe must reinvent its identity in a new world in which we are on our own. We need to decide whether to take responsibility for our future or let others decide for us. It is absolutely crucial whether Germany uses its significant fiscal space to rearm and improve infrastructure. If this happens, I am quite optimistic about the return opportunities for Europe in the coming years.
Together with my investment team, I am responsible for selecting the 35-45 stocks in Nordea’s European Sustainable Stars Equity Strategy. This solution invests solely in European companies, with a long-term investment profile. Through a balanced risk profile relative to the countries’ stock markets, our goal is to generate returns that exceed the average in Europe. Moreover, we only invest in companies with clear policies on how they handle environmental, social, and governance issues – the so-called ESG criteria. Alongside ESG analysis, the portfolio consists of stocks we select through thorough analysis of financial assessments, pricing, and strategic positioning.
The opportunity for a new, strong Europe stands in stark contrast to how Europe has been seen over the last 15 years. During this period, we’ve pinched pennies to save the banking sector and the euro, which was also in doubt at the beginning of the last decade. After the financial crisis, the banking sector had to increase its capital base and reduce lending. At the same time, we outsourced most of our European industrial jobs to China. In doing so, we undermined support for our own political system. But now, it seems that European politicians are beginning to understand which direction Europe must take, and this new direction will bring investment needs.
The new path lies in reducing dependence on the U.S. for defense, securing energy supplies independent of Russia and the U.S., and lessening reliance on China for the industrial value chain. For instance, we need to establish our own chip infrastructure and generally bring our industrial production back—not as manual labor that left us, but as automated production, which, in turn, creates many service jobs.
It took 20 years to dismantle our own production value chain, driven by the argument of cheap labor. But 1) that cheap labor no longer exists, and 2) we cannot afford to end up in a situation where we can’t get goods or where society stops because a container ship runs aground in the Suez Canal. Rolling back the value chain and transitioning Europe to become more autonomous will take most of a generation. But it’s our only option. And if we start breaking the negative cycle, I am quite optimistic for Europe’s future – and the potential for investment returns.
This transformation must also involve so-called social inclusive goals, which were part of the more than 170 recommendations made by former Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in his recent report on strengthening Europe’s competitiveness. Growth driven by rising stock and house prices is no longer sustainable. Growth must also include a social dimension that reduces inequality and increases prosperity for all Europeans, or else our welfare systems won’t survive.
I understand why many Europeans might be concerned about the current developments. But if we look back at recent economic history, we see that when we get scared, things often change for the better. At the peak of an economic cycle, we just want it to continue. But in the terrible events, such as the financial crisis, lie changes that have the potential to benefit us in the long term. Today, we have a solid banking system that has proven its value multiple times since the financial crisis. We solved that challenge, and we will solve today’s problems too. The outlook for investors in Europe is bright.